????????????????????????????????5)

?3 Delay-S???????CDF?

?4 Delay-S???????PDF?

2. Inflection-S?????????????

Inflection-S??????????????????????S??????????????

????S??????????????ü???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????и?????м???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Inflection-S????????????????????
Inflection-S????????????????CDF????F(t)=K*(1-exp(-??*t))/(1+??*exp(-??*t))??
Inflection-S????????????????PDF????f(t)=K*??*exp(-??*t)*(1+??)/(1+??*exp(-??*t))^2??
???У?t?????K??????????????????????
Inflection-S??????????????????????????S??????????????????
?????ж?
??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·?????????????????????????????????????????????????

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????￡???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????·???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Gompertz????????????Logistic???????

?????????е??????????е??????????????????????????????м?????????????г???????????????ж????????????????????????????

???????????R2???????????ж?

??????R2????????????????ж?????????????ж??????????????????????????????????????ж?????????????????ж?R2???????????ж??????????????????????????????У?R2?????????????????????????????

????в??????Q=??(y-y*)^2?????У?y?????????????y*???????????
??????????R2=1-Q/??(y-ya)^2?????У?y?????????????ya??????????????????
?ж?????R2???????1????????????
?????任??R2???????????ж?????Gompertz?????Logistic???????

Gompertz?????Logistic???????????????????????????????????????軔??????????б任????Gompertz?????ж????任????Logistic?????е????任?????????????????????????????????м?????????????????????任????????R2???????????ж??

Gompertz????
????????????????ж????任
???????任???????????y?????????任???????????y*
???????????????????????任???в??????Q????????R2
Logistic????
??????????????????????任
?????任???????????y???????任???????????y*
???????????????????????任???в??????Q????????R2
????????????????????????????????ж?

????R2???????ж????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????е??????ж????????????????е?????

?????????в??????Q=??(y-y*)^2???y^2?????У?y?????????????y*???????????
?????μ????????RNew=1-(Q/??y^2)^(1/2)
?ж?????RNew????1????????????
???????????????и????ж?

???????????п??????????????????????????￡??????????????????????????á????????????????????????????????????????????N?????е?????????????????н???С????????????????á?????????????????FR=cos??=??(yy*)/((??y^2)^(1/2)* (??y*^2)^(1/2))??

??????????RNew????????????????????????????У???????FR?????????RNew????????????????????

????????????????????????????????

???潫?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????У?At??????t????????Ft??????t????????n????????????????θ?????????????????

???????MAD??Mean Absolute Deviation

??????????????????????????????????????(????????????????????)????????

?????MAD=(??|At-Ft|)/n??t=1??n

MAD??????????????????????á?MAD??????????????????????????????????

??????????MSE??Mean Square Error

?????MSE=(??At-Ft)^2/n??t=1??n

MSE??MAD??????????????????????????????????

??????????MFE??Mean Forecast Error

???????????????????????????

?????MFE=(??(At-Ft))/n??t=1??n

???У???(At-Ft)??t=1??n?????????????????RSFE(Running Sum of Forecast Errors)???????????????????RSFE??y????0????MFE??????0?????MFE?????????????????????????????????????????????

??????????MAPE??Mean Absolute Percentage Error??

?????MAPE=(??|(At-Ft)/At|)/n??t=1??n

??????MAPEС??10???????????

MAD??MFE??MSE??MAPE???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????п????????????????????????????????